Been a while since I've thrown around predictions, but I'm only going with three most prominent main card fights. I didn't watch Ultimate Fighter Season 9, nor have I ever seen Pearson or Wilks in action, so I'm passing.
Bisping vs Kang - Bisping is looking for a win after being on the receiving end of a likely candidate for knockout of the year, courtesy of Dan Henderson, at UFC 100. Kang is trying to do something he's had trouble with his whole career, string together a series of wins. Bisping is still not in the top mix at 185 lbs, but I still him as the favorite here. I see this being a standup battle that Bisping will control all the way to a unanimous decision win. Kang could make things interesting by trying to put Bisping on his back, where he seemingly never ends up. As long as Bisping avoids dangerous spots on the ground he should be alright.
Swick vs Hardy - Dan Hardy is a guy who has impressed me in both his Octagon fights. He seems to place himself as brawler, but he seems more like a slick counter-striker to me. And I honestly think people are sleeping on him in this fight. Swick has earned the right to be the favorite here, but who of signifigance has he ever beaten? This is his first real test at welterweight and he shouldn't make the mistakes Marcus Davis did if he wants to win. I'm picking Hardy in this one by split decision. Whoever wins should enjoy the moment while they can, before the realization that they have to train to be taken down and worked over for twenty five minutes by GSP in several months.
Vera vs Couture - Eventually Couture is going to lose his tenacious fighting spirit, but he's got a good chance of keeping it going in the main event. Vera dominated in his last fight, albeit in a methodical and lackluster way that won him no fans. He also has a history of cracking under pressure against tougher fighters. Both guys have very good clinches, so look for those exchanges. I would say Couture definitely has the wrestling edge, and even though Vera isn't helpless on the ground, he should have problems with Couture being able to control him. The striking favors Vera, but he might need to be a little looser with his hands than in his last fight to score points and damage, though once again he might worry about getting taken down. While Vera is a young, solid test at his new weight of 205, I still think Randy takes it, by unanimous decision.
Saturday, November 14, 2009
Thursday, October 1, 2009
Movies
I reactived my Netflix account, so here's some capsule reviews.
Charley Varrick - 1970s crime picture that was hyped up in the excellent backmatter of Criminal, the Ed Brubaker and Sean Phillips comic series everyone should be buying. Great performances by Walter Matthau as the lead bank robber and Joe Don Baker as the hitman put onto him after Varrick ends up with mob money on accident. Story is very well plotted out, with no ridiculous intrusions or characters showing up out of nowhere to solve the problem. If you like crime drama, it's well worth your time.
Blue Velvet - The first David Lynch film I've ever watched. The famous symbolism is actually more blatant than I was expecting and to some might seem ridiculously apparent and lacking in effect. I didn't really have a problem with it and at the time I can see it being totally fresh. Also now potentially stale is the focus on stripping back the idyllic framing of small-town America, but Lynch is smart enough to not go totally overboard into some hard-boiled, over-the-top thriller and instead keeps everything grounded enough to where the unease slowly creeps up on you rather than it being loud and constantly in your face. Oh, and Dennis Hopper's character is really menacing in the best, unpredictable way.
Dr. Strangelove - Peter Sellers is tremendous and the film does a great job of laughing at the complete insanity of the Cold War period and how it could affect the people in positions of power. A great black comedy.
Gattaca - I think this is considered by some to be one of the better, newer sci-fi movies but I just could not get into it. The story breaks down into a really pretentious self-empowerment tale of overcoming, no matter what the odds, don't give up hope, you can't quit! The genetics focus is kind of interesting, but as a consequence of the ever advancing nature of sci-fi (for better or worse), it all seems tame and rehashed. The art style also really bugged me, with this potential near-future technology merged with a retro American vibe that never gets an explanation. The performances seemed flat and didn't do enough to make up for the lackluster other parts.
The Constant Gardener - One of the recent tales that exposes those nasty corporations for their nefarious deeds that shit all over the world and turn us all into mindless trademark machines. Fortunately that predictable and pointless premise is overshadowed by the nuances and reality of the relationship of main players Ralph Fiennes and Rachel Weisz. The film also has a very rough, under-produced feel that helps to reinforce how the film plays out. This might be a thriller, but none of these characters suddenly morph into Jason Bourne so we can see a half-baked shootout. I mean, I like The Fugitive plenty, but enough already. The ending sadly returns to Importantville again so we can show how once we bust one corrupt person, everything will change. Don't pay attention to the legions waiting in line behind him. On actually promoting a message well, the film does prominently showcase the horrors and problems facing Africa without actually screaming it to the rafters.
Blood Simple - The Coen Bros. first movie didn't grab me as all their others I've seen have. It certainly has potential and the story contains their often requisite crazy angles that breaks down into a somewhat standard drama with crime elements. The idiosyncratic characters are toned down quite a bit or completely absent and the humor is relegated to a few sparing moments, though still embedded with the ridiculousness of everyday life that packs their later films. More so than all that is the film seems bogged down, lacking their usual verve and snap. It's by no means bad, but just sort of there. Overall, it failed to really grab me and make me take notice. Would I feel different if it wasn't a production of the two brothers I've come to heartily admire? Probably. As it is, good but they've done better.
Barton Fink - Watching this afterwards, however, was like good ol' Joel and Ethan flicking the lights straight back to bright. While definitive statements from me should be viewed with a skeptical eye and carry little meaning, this is the most postmodern film I've ever seen. So if you were agitated by No Country for Old Men, do not get near this beast. Anger will flourish and rampages will bloom. The plot is set up quickly and never really develops past an initial stage of John Turturro as a playwright reaching out to the common man, lured away by Hollywood. He's excellent as always, as is fellow Coen staple Jon Goodman. If you like heaps of metaphors, allusions, comparisons and reflections on topics ranging from intellectualism, famous writers and fascism, find this thing. I'm sure as hell glad I did.
Planet Terror - I don't see how people can condemn Death Proof while anointing this as hugely superior. Well, I guess I can, and what I'm really saying is I disagree. The big flaw I see is that Rodriguez cared more about making a tribute to the Grindhouse ideal than actually creating a strong overall work, which in a way is the opposite of what Tarantino did. In the face of the praise I just couldn't get past being underwhelmed. There are some good performances and running ideas throughout, like the restaraunt owner who never gets a customer yet still searches for the perfect BBQ sauce and Bruce Willis. Everything else was taken to the extreme, seemingly just to show that they could.
Tell No One - French thriller that resembles a dish of The Fugitive with a small helping of Gone, Baby Gone. While I don't want to sound stupid, this thing is pretty complex, maybe even a bit too much so. A few of the angles are there, but they're straining. It might be a little easier to follow if I could understand the original dialogue, or maybe I'm just a horrible subtitle reader. Either way, this is a quick mover that boasts a great turn from Francois Cluzet in the lead.
Let the Right One In - Believe the hype. I still don't know if I saw the version with the first translation subtitles or the later one, with the "dumbed-down" edits. If this was the latter, even though the former should always be preferred, it doesn't hurt the film enough to matter. While I guess this could be considered a genre film, it has little in the way of bombarding action or mystery. Instead, any sort of set piece comes quick and end quick, leaving you little time to ponder an interpretation of the actions as good or bad until they start piling up and relationships end and begin. In fact, the movie can trick you into thinking things when you're not considering what might really be occurring. Maybe a better word than thinking is believing, or wanting to believe. Even the title gets in on the act. The great thing is, you don't even need to look at the section underneath, and can instead just see a vampire story with enough character and slight twists to make it stand out. In fact, when you do take a look below, what's on the surface might turn irrevocably tragic.
Charley Varrick - 1970s crime picture that was hyped up in the excellent backmatter of Criminal, the Ed Brubaker and Sean Phillips comic series everyone should be buying. Great performances by Walter Matthau as the lead bank robber and Joe Don Baker as the hitman put onto him after Varrick ends up with mob money on accident. Story is very well plotted out, with no ridiculous intrusions or characters showing up out of nowhere to solve the problem. If you like crime drama, it's well worth your time.
Blue Velvet - The first David Lynch film I've ever watched. The famous symbolism is actually more blatant than I was expecting and to some might seem ridiculously apparent and lacking in effect. I didn't really have a problem with it and at the time I can see it being totally fresh. Also now potentially stale is the focus on stripping back the idyllic framing of small-town America, but Lynch is smart enough to not go totally overboard into some hard-boiled, over-the-top thriller and instead keeps everything grounded enough to where the unease slowly creeps up on you rather than it being loud and constantly in your face. Oh, and Dennis Hopper's character is really menacing in the best, unpredictable way.
Dr. Strangelove - Peter Sellers is tremendous and the film does a great job of laughing at the complete insanity of the Cold War period and how it could affect the people in positions of power. A great black comedy.
Gattaca - I think this is considered by some to be one of the better, newer sci-fi movies but I just could not get into it. The story breaks down into a really pretentious self-empowerment tale of overcoming, no matter what the odds, don't give up hope, you can't quit! The genetics focus is kind of interesting, but as a consequence of the ever advancing nature of sci-fi (for better or worse), it all seems tame and rehashed. The art style also really bugged me, with this potential near-future technology merged with a retro American vibe that never gets an explanation. The performances seemed flat and didn't do enough to make up for the lackluster other parts.
The Constant Gardener - One of the recent tales that exposes those nasty corporations for their nefarious deeds that shit all over the world and turn us all into mindless trademark machines. Fortunately that predictable and pointless premise is overshadowed by the nuances and reality of the relationship of main players Ralph Fiennes and Rachel Weisz. The film also has a very rough, under-produced feel that helps to reinforce how the film plays out. This might be a thriller, but none of these characters suddenly morph into Jason Bourne so we can see a half-baked shootout. I mean, I like The Fugitive plenty, but enough already. The ending sadly returns to Importantville again so we can show how once we bust one corrupt person, everything will change. Don't pay attention to the legions waiting in line behind him. On actually promoting a message well, the film does prominently showcase the horrors and problems facing Africa without actually screaming it to the rafters.
Blood Simple - The Coen Bros. first movie didn't grab me as all their others I've seen have. It certainly has potential and the story contains their often requisite crazy angles that breaks down into a somewhat standard drama with crime elements. The idiosyncratic characters are toned down quite a bit or completely absent and the humor is relegated to a few sparing moments, though still embedded with the ridiculousness of everyday life that packs their later films. More so than all that is the film seems bogged down, lacking their usual verve and snap. It's by no means bad, but just sort of there. Overall, it failed to really grab me and make me take notice. Would I feel different if it wasn't a production of the two brothers I've come to heartily admire? Probably. As it is, good but they've done better.
Barton Fink - Watching this afterwards, however, was like good ol' Joel and Ethan flicking the lights straight back to bright. While definitive statements from me should be viewed with a skeptical eye and carry little meaning, this is the most postmodern film I've ever seen. So if you were agitated by No Country for Old Men, do not get near this beast. Anger will flourish and rampages will bloom. The plot is set up quickly and never really develops past an initial stage of John Turturro as a playwright reaching out to the common man, lured away by Hollywood. He's excellent as always, as is fellow Coen staple Jon Goodman. If you like heaps of metaphors, allusions, comparisons and reflections on topics ranging from intellectualism, famous writers and fascism, find this thing. I'm sure as hell glad I did.
Planet Terror - I don't see how people can condemn Death Proof while anointing this as hugely superior. Well, I guess I can, and what I'm really saying is I disagree. The big flaw I see is that Rodriguez cared more about making a tribute to the Grindhouse ideal than actually creating a strong overall work, which in a way is the opposite of what Tarantino did. In the face of the praise I just couldn't get past being underwhelmed. There are some good performances and running ideas throughout, like the restaraunt owner who never gets a customer yet still searches for the perfect BBQ sauce and Bruce Willis. Everything else was taken to the extreme, seemingly just to show that they could.
Tell No One - French thriller that resembles a dish of The Fugitive with a small helping of Gone, Baby Gone. While I don't want to sound stupid, this thing is pretty complex, maybe even a bit too much so. A few of the angles are there, but they're straining. It might be a little easier to follow if I could understand the original dialogue, or maybe I'm just a horrible subtitle reader. Either way, this is a quick mover that boasts a great turn from Francois Cluzet in the lead.
Let the Right One In - Believe the hype. I still don't know if I saw the version with the first translation subtitles or the later one, with the "dumbed-down" edits. If this was the latter, even though the former should always be preferred, it doesn't hurt the film enough to matter. While I guess this could be considered a genre film, it has little in the way of bombarding action or mystery. Instead, any sort of set piece comes quick and end quick, leaving you little time to ponder an interpretation of the actions as good or bad until they start piling up and relationships end and begin. In fact, the movie can trick you into thinking things when you're not considering what might really be occurring. Maybe a better word than thinking is believing, or wanting to believe. Even the title gets in on the act. The great thing is, you don't even need to look at the section underneath, and can instead just see a vampire story with enough character and slight twists to make it stand out. In fact, when you do take a look below, what's on the surface might turn irrevocably tragic.
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Random
1. Starting Darren Sproles in place of Thomas Jones in fantasy football this week. With LT out, Sproles is going to have an even bigger workload than last week when he put up over 20 points against the Ravens defense. Jones's weakness is his incosistency, highlighted by a big week one and abysmal week two. Also hurting his value is Leon Washington getting the majority of the work near the goal line. This week the Jets play Tennessee, who have shut down the run so far but been weak against the pass. That could increase his value some, as he traditionally gets close to half or more of his points receiving out of the backfield. Sproles, meanwhile, is facing an improving Miami defense that nontheless likely won't be able to shut down the run as well as the Ravens did. That's why I'm going with Sproles, in my first big decision of the season.
2. I still can't tell if Quinton Jackson is seriously going to retire. Rampage certainly has been prone to rash statements and actions in the past, and this could be just the latest. On the other hand, Jackson has enough of a name and personality to sustain himself without ever stepping back into a cage or ring. From my angle, some of his gripes seem ill-founded and preposterous. Refusing to drop the fans booing him when he beat Liddell got old a long time ago. Rampage has to be one of the popular fighters in the organization now, but he seems to think everyone's against him. Equally hollow is his assertion that his fans saw him as being afraid of Machida. You don't have to be an MMA expert to know Rampage is not going to back down from anyone because he is afraid. For other reasons, like he talks about, sure, but not that. Him bringing up Dana White in particular as a reason is interesting, even though I think White had some ground to voice the opinions he did, even if he did so in his usual irritating, childish way. I'm assuming we won't know anything at least until the A-Team movie is done filming.
3. I love cooperative multiplayer video games. I think it's one of the best new trends emerging in development today. However, not having people you know and are halfway reliable is a huge crutch that needs to be overcome, even though don't ask me to figure it out. Constantly being at the mercy of the host in games where you progress through levels or waves, like in Gears of War 2's Horde Mode or presumably Halo: ODST's Firefight Mode, can get really frustrating when the game suddenly ends and you're back at square one. Like I said, a solution isn't something I can think of. Potentially the players who drop out could receive a penalty of some sorts in-game, but I don't know if that's really the answer because of all that it implies. So somebody else get on it, because I want to play Horde Mode.
2. I still can't tell if Quinton Jackson is seriously going to retire. Rampage certainly has been prone to rash statements and actions in the past, and this could be just the latest. On the other hand, Jackson has enough of a name and personality to sustain himself without ever stepping back into a cage or ring. From my angle, some of his gripes seem ill-founded and preposterous. Refusing to drop the fans booing him when he beat Liddell got old a long time ago. Rampage has to be one of the popular fighters in the organization now, but he seems to think everyone's against him. Equally hollow is his assertion that his fans saw him as being afraid of Machida. You don't have to be an MMA expert to know Rampage is not going to back down from anyone because he is afraid. For other reasons, like he talks about, sure, but not that. Him bringing up Dana White in particular as a reason is interesting, even though I think White had some ground to voice the opinions he did, even if he did so in his usual irritating, childish way. I'm assuming we won't know anything at least until the A-Team movie is done filming.
3. I love cooperative multiplayer video games. I think it's one of the best new trends emerging in development today. However, not having people you know and are halfway reliable is a huge crutch that needs to be overcome, even though don't ask me to figure it out. Constantly being at the mercy of the host in games where you progress through levels or waves, like in Gears of War 2's Horde Mode or presumably Halo: ODST's Firefight Mode, can get really frustrating when the game suddenly ends and you're back at square one. Like I said, a solution isn't something I can think of. Potentially the players who drop out could receive a penalty of some sorts in-game, but I don't know if that's really the answer because of all that it implies. So somebody else get on it, because I want to play Horde Mode.
Thursday, September 10, 2009
UFC 103 Preview
Later this month UFC 103 will go down in Dallas, featuring the return of a legendary heavyweight trying to resurrect his career and the second catchweight main event in the last five main shows the UFC has held. A few thoughts before the fight breakdowns.
- This is the first time I can remember since following MMA that a promotion is going up against a noteworthy boxing PPV. That is especially significant because Floyd Mayweather Jr., one of the biggest money draws in the sport, is in the main event against Juan Manuel Marquez. The UFC card contains some solid names, but nothing that can compete with Mayweather. So to the surprise of no one, Dana White emerges to blow smoke up the ass of everyone who will listen, claiming that this is not the fight the fans want, citing Pacquiao vs Mayweather as the real fight. I don't follow boxing enough, but that is logically the best possible fight between guys who can hit a common weight. White failed to even remember Marquez's name, despite referencing his background as "a huge boxing guy." Keep in mind Marquez is ranked #2 on Ring's pound-for-pound list, right behind Pacman, who he's given two good showing efforts against despite losing both times. So while Marquez doesn't have mainstream recognition, he is a very legitimate threat to Mayweather and the next best opponent after Pacquiao. White is insinuating that the UFC always gives the fans the big fights they want. Sadly, you have to look no further than Anderson Silva, the UFC's big gun, to find lackluster matchups. Patrick Cote and Thales Leites are both names that would not set the fires alight in the eye of the casual fan if they had them at point blank range with a flamethrower. His most recent fight against Forrest Griffin provided a bigger name, albeit one that was hopelessly overmatched. White later goes on to dismiss Mayweather basically as a defensive fighter who spends his time running and not engaging. Don't let those similar phrases being applied to Anderson Silva up until the Griffin fight distract you from the gospel according to DW. White does come up with one good point by the end, that being how most boxing PPV's can be hollow purchases, offering up only a few decent fights. However, the UFC is always only putting on quality fights, says White. To an extent this is true, but I think it owes more to the unpredictability and multiple outcomes inherent in the sport than some intrinsic quality that comes with the letters UFC. Boxing is a business and so is MMA. White knows this, and if he could tone down his Herculean-hype sometimes he'd probably reduce some of his detractors.
- Rich Franklin fighting again at the 195 catchweight after his win over Wanderlei Silva at UFC 99 comes across as a mixed signal. The UFC has been quick to denounce talk over there being an actual division created at 195, but here it pops up again. Franklin has said if it did exist it would be his new home but whether or not any other fighters feel the same in unknown. The conflicting actions by the UFC probably contribute to this, because until they come up with something concrete, everything is speculation. I'm also not sure if Franklin would be enough to carry the division if it did come to fruition. I personally think less divisions mean higher competition and more meaningful fights within them, but I also am not against additions or catchweight fights. The problem with catchweights is it can undermine the divisional structure in some instances. If Franklin does eventually move up to 205, it would be interesting to see how he fit into the mix in the wake of his results at 195. Would he get a title shot sooner assuming he secured wins or would he have to wait longer? With the UFC eventually adding the bantamweight and featherweight classes, it will be interesting to see where they go with 195.
Now that those diatribes are done, we can move onto the predictions. Nothing on the undercard really stood out to me, so I just did the five main card bouts.
Tyson Griffin vs Hermes Franca - With Kenny Florian coming up short in his bid for the lightweight belt against BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez next in line, the division really has no one that stands out from the large mix of competitors, with the possible exception of Gray Maynard. Griffin and Franca both hope to take the first step towards gaining that vacant status. Griffin had reeled off four straight wins until he ran into Sean Sherk at UFC 90 before bouncing back with a win over Rafeal dos Anjos at Fight Night 18. Franca has been on the shelf since October of 2008, nursing a torn ligament in his knee. I'm expecting Griffin to dominate the fight from every position. Franca is a decent opponent but he has historically had trouble with strong wrestlers like Sean Sherk and Frankie Edgar. I'm predicting Griffin keeps that tradition going.
Prediction - Griffin by Unanimous Decision
Josh Koscheck vs Frank Trigg - Trigg makes his return to the UFC after a four year absence against top welterweight Koscheck, himself trying to get back into the title mix after an equally devastating and surprising knockout loss to Paulo Thiago back in February. Trigg has won four straight, but against very light competition and all by lackluster decision. He's one of several older fighters past their prime but still active the UFC has recently picked up. Like fellow return signee Mark Coleman, the UFC has thrown Trigg to the wolves in his first fight back. Koscheck is superior in every aspect and should rout Trigg early and claim a stoppage victory.
Prediction - Koscheck by TKO
Martin Kampmann vs Paul Daley - Originally slated to be Kampmann vs Mike Swick to determine the next opponent for Georges St. Pierre's welterweight title, Daley was moved up from the preliminaries after Swick was injured. Daley had been scheduled to fight on the Affliction: Trilogy card and signed with the UFC afterwards, adding another popular British fighter to their ranks. Kampmann has won two straight since he dropped to 170 and looks to be on the fast track to a title shot. He needs to be cautious of Daley's striking, which has netted him every stoppage win on his record. Kampmann might look to put Daley onto the ground where he was quickly overwhelmed in his fight with Jake Shields after looking good on the feet. Even with the better standup, I don't see him overwhelming the very well-rounded Kampmann.
Prediction - Kampmann by Submission
Mirko "Cro-Cop" Filipovic vs Junior dos Santos - With all the drama behind Cro-Cop's contract negotiations over, he now looks to resurrect his career and reclaim the magic of the PRIDE days against dangerous fellow striker dos Santos. To put it bluntly, Cro-Cop has not looked good despite winning three of his last four against the dregs of the worldwide heavyweight crop. dos Santos will be a stern test and should show if Cro-Cop's UFC return has any legitimate weight. He's dispatched his last two opponents in just over two minutes and I'm expecting Cro-Cop to sadly suffer a similar, if slightly elongated, fate.
Prediction - dos Santos by TKO
Rich Franklin vs Vitor Belfort - Of all the returning fighters the UFC has plucked, Belfort looks to have the biggest upside. His hand speed has reemerged with his power to potentially allow him to win a fight with one punch. Like Trigg, however, Belfort is matched straight up with a top level fighter in Franklin. I can see Franklin respecting Belfort's stand-up and staying on the outside and scoring with methodical, pinpoint striking of his own on the way to a decision victory. Belfort has room to challenge him though, especially if Franklin slows down like he did in his last fight with Wanderlei Silva. Whatever the result, I hope Belfort stays prominent and can eliminate the consistency issues that have plagued him in the past. His explosiveness could turn him into one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC.
Prediction - Franklin by Unanimous Decision
- This is the first time I can remember since following MMA that a promotion is going up against a noteworthy boxing PPV. That is especially significant because Floyd Mayweather Jr., one of the biggest money draws in the sport, is in the main event against Juan Manuel Marquez. The UFC card contains some solid names, but nothing that can compete with Mayweather. So to the surprise of no one, Dana White emerges to blow smoke up the ass of everyone who will listen, claiming that this is not the fight the fans want, citing Pacquiao vs Mayweather as the real fight. I don't follow boxing enough, but that is logically the best possible fight between guys who can hit a common weight. White failed to even remember Marquez's name, despite referencing his background as "a huge boxing guy." Keep in mind Marquez is ranked #2 on Ring's pound-for-pound list, right behind Pacman, who he's given two good showing efforts against despite losing both times. So while Marquez doesn't have mainstream recognition, he is a very legitimate threat to Mayweather and the next best opponent after Pacquiao. White is insinuating that the UFC always gives the fans the big fights they want. Sadly, you have to look no further than Anderson Silva, the UFC's big gun, to find lackluster matchups. Patrick Cote and Thales Leites are both names that would not set the fires alight in the eye of the casual fan if they had them at point blank range with a flamethrower. His most recent fight against Forrest Griffin provided a bigger name, albeit one that was hopelessly overmatched. White later goes on to dismiss Mayweather basically as a defensive fighter who spends his time running and not engaging. Don't let those similar phrases being applied to Anderson Silva up until the Griffin fight distract you from the gospel according to DW. White does come up with one good point by the end, that being how most boxing PPV's can be hollow purchases, offering up only a few decent fights. However, the UFC is always only putting on quality fights, says White. To an extent this is true, but I think it owes more to the unpredictability and multiple outcomes inherent in the sport than some intrinsic quality that comes with the letters UFC. Boxing is a business and so is MMA. White knows this, and if he could tone down his Herculean-hype sometimes he'd probably reduce some of his detractors.
- Rich Franklin fighting again at the 195 catchweight after his win over Wanderlei Silva at UFC 99 comes across as a mixed signal. The UFC has been quick to denounce talk over there being an actual division created at 195, but here it pops up again. Franklin has said if it did exist it would be his new home but whether or not any other fighters feel the same in unknown. The conflicting actions by the UFC probably contribute to this, because until they come up with something concrete, everything is speculation. I'm also not sure if Franklin would be enough to carry the division if it did come to fruition. I personally think less divisions mean higher competition and more meaningful fights within them, but I also am not against additions or catchweight fights. The problem with catchweights is it can undermine the divisional structure in some instances. If Franklin does eventually move up to 205, it would be interesting to see how he fit into the mix in the wake of his results at 195. Would he get a title shot sooner assuming he secured wins or would he have to wait longer? With the UFC eventually adding the bantamweight and featherweight classes, it will be interesting to see where they go with 195.
Now that those diatribes are done, we can move onto the predictions. Nothing on the undercard really stood out to me, so I just did the five main card bouts.
Tyson Griffin vs Hermes Franca - With Kenny Florian coming up short in his bid for the lightweight belt against BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez next in line, the division really has no one that stands out from the large mix of competitors, with the possible exception of Gray Maynard. Griffin and Franca both hope to take the first step towards gaining that vacant status. Griffin had reeled off four straight wins until he ran into Sean Sherk at UFC 90 before bouncing back with a win over Rafeal dos Anjos at Fight Night 18. Franca has been on the shelf since October of 2008, nursing a torn ligament in his knee. I'm expecting Griffin to dominate the fight from every position. Franca is a decent opponent but he has historically had trouble with strong wrestlers like Sean Sherk and Frankie Edgar. I'm predicting Griffin keeps that tradition going.
Prediction - Griffin by Unanimous Decision
Josh Koscheck vs Frank Trigg - Trigg makes his return to the UFC after a four year absence against top welterweight Koscheck, himself trying to get back into the title mix after an equally devastating and surprising knockout loss to Paulo Thiago back in February. Trigg has won four straight, but against very light competition and all by lackluster decision. He's one of several older fighters past their prime but still active the UFC has recently picked up. Like fellow return signee Mark Coleman, the UFC has thrown Trigg to the wolves in his first fight back. Koscheck is superior in every aspect and should rout Trigg early and claim a stoppage victory.
Prediction - Koscheck by TKO
Martin Kampmann vs Paul Daley - Originally slated to be Kampmann vs Mike Swick to determine the next opponent for Georges St. Pierre's welterweight title, Daley was moved up from the preliminaries after Swick was injured. Daley had been scheduled to fight on the Affliction: Trilogy card and signed with the UFC afterwards, adding another popular British fighter to their ranks. Kampmann has won two straight since he dropped to 170 and looks to be on the fast track to a title shot. He needs to be cautious of Daley's striking, which has netted him every stoppage win on his record. Kampmann might look to put Daley onto the ground where he was quickly overwhelmed in his fight with Jake Shields after looking good on the feet. Even with the better standup, I don't see him overwhelming the very well-rounded Kampmann.
Prediction - Kampmann by Submission
Mirko "Cro-Cop" Filipovic vs Junior dos Santos - With all the drama behind Cro-Cop's contract negotiations over, he now looks to resurrect his career and reclaim the magic of the PRIDE days against dangerous fellow striker dos Santos. To put it bluntly, Cro-Cop has not looked good despite winning three of his last four against the dregs of the worldwide heavyweight crop. dos Santos will be a stern test and should show if Cro-Cop's UFC return has any legitimate weight. He's dispatched his last two opponents in just over two minutes and I'm expecting Cro-Cop to sadly suffer a similar, if slightly elongated, fate.
Prediction - dos Santos by TKO
Rich Franklin vs Vitor Belfort - Of all the returning fighters the UFC has plucked, Belfort looks to have the biggest upside. His hand speed has reemerged with his power to potentially allow him to win a fight with one punch. Like Trigg, however, Belfort is matched straight up with a top level fighter in Franklin. I can see Franklin respecting Belfort's stand-up and staying on the outside and scoring with methodical, pinpoint striking of his own on the way to a decision victory. Belfort has room to challenge him though, especially if Franklin slows down like he did in his last fight with Wanderlei Silva. Whatever the result, I hope Belfort stays prominent and can eliminate the consistency issues that have plagued him in the past. His explosiveness could turn him into one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC.
Prediction - Franklin by Unanimous Decision
Wednesday, September 2, 2009
Recapping UFC 102
I'm going to skip most of the undercard because the majority of the bouts didn't contain noteworthy fighters or spotlight guys to keep watch on.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Chris Tuchscherer - Gonzaga once again proved he's the guy you send in to destroy overmatched opponents. He'll now likely step up in competition once again and hope to get his first meaningful win since he knocked out Mirko "Cro-Cop" Filipovic over two years ago. He always seems one win away from really being a contender in the UFC's weak heavyweight division.
Aaron Simpson vs Ed Herman - These two went at it close to nonstop until Ed Herman's knee injury ended things early in the second round. The loss keeps Herman in the gatekeeper role, while Simpson's strong performance and remaining undefeated keep him as a solid prospect in the middleweight ranks.
Brandon Vera vs Krzysztof Soszynski - Vera was originally slated to face Matt Hamill, but an injury allowed Soszynski to step in late, making this his third fight in five months. There was little action and Vera comfortably cruised to a decision. The win does little for him though. Despite a dominating effort against a game, rising opponent, Vera still lacks quality wins at light heavyweight, even though his competition should now rise. Soszynski loses little, as he was a replacement that hasn't faced the level of fighters Vera has.
Chris Leben vs Jake Rosholt - Something of a minor upset? Leben hadn't fought in nine months due to a steroid suspension, so ring rust is going to be a factor. None of his haymakers connected and he had few answers for Rosholt's superior wrestling, eventually falling prey to an arm triangle. Leben's comeback fight being spoiled deters any advancement in the congested tier of decent middleweights. Rosholt, after losing to Dan Miller in his first UFC bout, secures his place in the organization.
Nate Marquardt vs Demian Maia - Maia's run as one of the hottest prospects got stamped out by Marquardt, who needed just 21 seconds and a single punch to put the first blemish on the jiu-jitsu ace's record. Maia has been working on his standup with Wanderlei Silva, but he looked strikingly similar to Shinya Aoki in his last fight, trying to downplay his obvious strength in favor of looking and/or actually being more well-rounded. Aoki got a win because he was more active against a fighter whose standup was equally as limited. Unfortunately for Maia, Marquardt is one of the handful of elites in the UFC's middleweight crop and dangerous from any position. Given the short time the match and its quick end, it's hard to tell if Maia was simply overwhelmed or whether his point of attack was wrong. Whatever the case, Marquardt solidified his position for a rematch with Anderson Silva. The Brazilian's camp oddly floated talk that suggested a title eliminator with Marquardt and Silva's once expected next challenger Dan Henderson. Whatever occurs, Marquardt stands a much better chance than "The Spider's" last two opponents.
Thiago Silva vs Keith Jardine - Going into this, I predicted that Silva would either dispatch Jardine quickly or the Team Jackson fighter would frustrate and execute a patented gameplan en route to a decision over the American Top Team fighter like he did over Chuck Liddell. Silva's power proved too much for Jardin'e suspect chin under two minutes into round one. With two losses in a row for the first time in his UFC career, Jardine is in danger of getting left behind in the stacked 205 lb. division. Silva, meanwhile, regains his footing after failing to solve the puzzle that is Lyoto Machida back in January. Expect nothing but quality opponents with title ramifications in the explosive Brazilian's future.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Randy Couture - I was fairly skeptical of this matchup going in, but the results proved better than I ever would have expected. Both fighters showed that the recent talk of them being near the end of their careers was premature. Nogueira's superhuman-esque ability to absorb damage returned, while Couture himself survived several knockdowns and submission attempts en route to losing an entertaining unanimous decision. The performances bode well for a UFC heavyweight division that severely lacks depth. Nog is likely right back into the title picture, maybe next against the winner of the Cain Velasquez/Ben Rothwell fight. Whoever is next for Couture in the wake of his new contract will be a big fight based on "The Natural's" name alone, though I really have no idea who the UFC will line up.
Gabriel Gonzaga vs Chris Tuchscherer - Gonzaga once again proved he's the guy you send in to destroy overmatched opponents. He'll now likely step up in competition once again and hope to get his first meaningful win since he knocked out Mirko "Cro-Cop" Filipovic over two years ago. He always seems one win away from really being a contender in the UFC's weak heavyweight division.
Aaron Simpson vs Ed Herman - These two went at it close to nonstop until Ed Herman's knee injury ended things early in the second round. The loss keeps Herman in the gatekeeper role, while Simpson's strong performance and remaining undefeated keep him as a solid prospect in the middleweight ranks.
Brandon Vera vs Krzysztof Soszynski - Vera was originally slated to face Matt Hamill, but an injury allowed Soszynski to step in late, making this his third fight in five months. There was little action and Vera comfortably cruised to a decision. The win does little for him though. Despite a dominating effort against a game, rising opponent, Vera still lacks quality wins at light heavyweight, even though his competition should now rise. Soszynski loses little, as he was a replacement that hasn't faced the level of fighters Vera has.
Chris Leben vs Jake Rosholt - Something of a minor upset? Leben hadn't fought in nine months due to a steroid suspension, so ring rust is going to be a factor. None of his haymakers connected and he had few answers for Rosholt's superior wrestling, eventually falling prey to an arm triangle. Leben's comeback fight being spoiled deters any advancement in the congested tier of decent middleweights. Rosholt, after losing to Dan Miller in his first UFC bout, secures his place in the organization.
Nate Marquardt vs Demian Maia - Maia's run as one of the hottest prospects got stamped out by Marquardt, who needed just 21 seconds and a single punch to put the first blemish on the jiu-jitsu ace's record. Maia has been working on his standup with Wanderlei Silva, but he looked strikingly similar to Shinya Aoki in his last fight, trying to downplay his obvious strength in favor of looking and/or actually being more well-rounded. Aoki got a win because he was more active against a fighter whose standup was equally as limited. Unfortunately for Maia, Marquardt is one of the handful of elites in the UFC's middleweight crop and dangerous from any position. Given the short time the match and its quick end, it's hard to tell if Maia was simply overwhelmed or whether his point of attack was wrong. Whatever the case, Marquardt solidified his position for a rematch with Anderson Silva. The Brazilian's camp oddly floated talk that suggested a title eliminator with Marquardt and Silva's once expected next challenger Dan Henderson. Whatever occurs, Marquardt stands a much better chance than "The Spider's" last two opponents.
Thiago Silva vs Keith Jardine - Going into this, I predicted that Silva would either dispatch Jardine quickly or the Team Jackson fighter would frustrate and execute a patented gameplan en route to a decision over the American Top Team fighter like he did over Chuck Liddell. Silva's power proved too much for Jardin'e suspect chin under two minutes into round one. With two losses in a row for the first time in his UFC career, Jardine is in danger of getting left behind in the stacked 205 lb. division. Silva, meanwhile, regains his footing after failing to solve the puzzle that is Lyoto Machida back in January. Expect nothing but quality opponents with title ramifications in the explosive Brazilian's future.
Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs Randy Couture - I was fairly skeptical of this matchup going in, but the results proved better than I ever would have expected. Both fighters showed that the recent talk of them being near the end of their careers was premature. Nogueira's superhuman-esque ability to absorb damage returned, while Couture himself survived several knockdowns and submission attempts en route to losing an entertaining unanimous decision. The performances bode well for a UFC heavyweight division that severely lacks depth. Nog is likely right back into the title picture, maybe next against the winner of the Cain Velasquez/Ben Rothwell fight. Whoever is next for Couture in the wake of his new contract will be a big fight based on "The Natural's" name alone, though I really have no idea who the UFC will line up.
Tuesday, August 25, 2009
Whatever Happened to the Fighters of Tommorow?
Putting aside all Alan Moore-scripted Superman tales (for what it's worth, I enjoyed What Do You Get for the Man Who Has Everything much more), this is a list of fighters who have disappeared off the main stage of MMA. Some are set to make returns while others are still eluding the search parties.
1. Chris Leben - The bad boy turned "saint" has been absent from the octagon since his October 2008 loss to Michael Bisping. That fight was postponed three months after Leben got arrested stemming from a warrant out on him for a past DUI offense. He followed that up by testing positive for steroids after the Bisping fight, resulting in a nine month suspension. The guy just can't get ahead. Nevertheless, Leben is set to return the soonest of all our entrants, this weekend at UFC 102 against Jake Rosholt on the undercard. Fans of Bruce Buffer's pronunciation of Oahu, Hawaii take note.
2. Alistair Overeem - Possibly the fighter with the most rumored bouts in the past year, Overeem has yet to actually compete in MMA since a thrashing of the never ending tragedy that is Gary Goodridge on a smaller show in his home base of the Netherlands this past November. Following that, he briefly messed around in K-1, where he was undone by his immortal enemy, consistency, when he followed up an impressive win over then Heavyweight Champion Badr Hari on New Year's Eve with a loss to Remy Bonjasky in March. Over that period, everything under the sun has promised to include him with no result. Dana White talked of bringing him to the UFC. A rematch with Mirko "Cro-Cop" Filipovic seemingly loomed on the horizon after their no-contest previously in DREAM. The latest was when a hand injury forced him out of the biggest of them all, his first defense of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Title against solid contender Fabricio Werdum on Strikeforce's August 15th show. Then talk shifted of him fighting Fedor Emelianenko after his Strikeforce signing, assuming the Russian would get an immediate title shot. However, Strikeforce officials have been cautious about that occurring, wanting instead to try and hype that fight, a dangerous proposition in a sport as unpredictable as MMA. While he's had trouble stringing together victories, Overeem is one of the few very well rounded heavyweights and can make a compelling matchup against anyone.
3. Dustin Hazelett - Kid Jiu-Jitsu looked to be submitting towards the elite in the welterweight division when a devastating ACL tear put him on the shelf indefinitely prior to his UFC 96 contest with Ben Saunders. Expected to be out for more than a year, good news surfaced this week when he was announced as the opponent for the high caliber Karo Parisyan, himself coming back from a steroid suspension. Hopefully the injury has fully healed and Hazelett can bring his exciting ground game back to a stagnant crop of UFC welterweights.
4. Alexsander Emelianenko - While older brother Fedor has moved increasingly into the American market after the collapse of PRIDE, Alexsander has been stalled by various issues that have kept him fighting on minor shows mainly in Russia. He was expected to compete on the first Affliction show, but was denied a license by the California State Athletic Commission at the eleventh hour, attributed by him to a simple deadline mistake. In the aftermath, a prominent CSAC official stated that Emelianenko would not be allowed to fight anywhere in America, likely owing to something more than time conflicts. Affliction attempted to secure him for their second event, but once again he was denied a permit. Whether or not this is something that can be solved in the future is unknown, but Emelianenko hasn't made any move towards the Japanese promotions that would seem to be the next best place. Instead, he's slated to appear on another M-1 event in Korea this September against lackluster competition.
5. Goran Reljic - I haven't seen many more tantalizing debuts than Reljic's at UFC 84. He was the new and improved "Cro-Cop": a Croatian striker that had vicious kicks but with submission skills. His fight with Wilson Gouveia turned into one hell of an entertaining slugfest, with both fighters seemingly seconds from being finished before Reljic scored the TKO victory and picked up the "Fight of the Night" award. His second fight was scheduled for UFC 90 against Thales Leites, but a back injury in training forced him out. Little has surfaced about Reljic since then. A May report said he had undergone back surgery and had begun minor training, but nothing has come out since then, even though he is still apparently under contract with the UFC.
6. Roger Huerta - "El Matador" was riding a sixteen fight win streak heading into his August 2008 showdown with Kenny Florian. Coming off a resilient win over Clay Guida, this was Huerta's chance to prove he was a top contender. Unfortunately he was dominated by Florian and was expected to move back down into the sludge of the UFC's lightweight division. Instead, he's been inactive for almost exactly a year. Huerta caught Cung Le disease (who should be on this list now that I think about it) and said he wanted to move into acting, which has culminated in a role in the Tekken movie (oh yes). He was also critical of the policies of the UFC during media tours, which drew the predictable backlash from Dana White and led many to believe Huerta had been effectively blacklisted since he only had one fight left on his contract. However, in true Tito Ortiz style (I guess that doesn't really work now since he's returning), Huerta will at least fulfill his contract when he faces the surging Gray Maynard at Fight Night 19.
1. Chris Leben - The bad boy turned "saint" has been absent from the octagon since his October 2008 loss to Michael Bisping. That fight was postponed three months after Leben got arrested stemming from a warrant out on him for a past DUI offense. He followed that up by testing positive for steroids after the Bisping fight, resulting in a nine month suspension. The guy just can't get ahead. Nevertheless, Leben is set to return the soonest of all our entrants, this weekend at UFC 102 against Jake Rosholt on the undercard. Fans of Bruce Buffer's pronunciation of Oahu, Hawaii take note.
2. Alistair Overeem - Possibly the fighter with the most rumored bouts in the past year, Overeem has yet to actually compete in MMA since a thrashing of the never ending tragedy that is Gary Goodridge on a smaller show in his home base of the Netherlands this past November. Following that, he briefly messed around in K-1, where he was undone by his immortal enemy, consistency, when he followed up an impressive win over then Heavyweight Champion Badr Hari on New Year's Eve with a loss to Remy Bonjasky in March. Over that period, everything under the sun has promised to include him with no result. Dana White talked of bringing him to the UFC. A rematch with Mirko "Cro-Cop" Filipovic seemingly loomed on the horizon after their no-contest previously in DREAM. The latest was when a hand injury forced him out of the biggest of them all, his first defense of the Strikeforce Heavyweight Title against solid contender Fabricio Werdum on Strikeforce's August 15th show. Then talk shifted of him fighting Fedor Emelianenko after his Strikeforce signing, assuming the Russian would get an immediate title shot. However, Strikeforce officials have been cautious about that occurring, wanting instead to try and hype that fight, a dangerous proposition in a sport as unpredictable as MMA. While he's had trouble stringing together victories, Overeem is one of the few very well rounded heavyweights and can make a compelling matchup against anyone.
3. Dustin Hazelett - Kid Jiu-Jitsu looked to be submitting towards the elite in the welterweight division when a devastating ACL tear put him on the shelf indefinitely prior to his UFC 96 contest with Ben Saunders. Expected to be out for more than a year, good news surfaced this week when he was announced as the opponent for the high caliber Karo Parisyan, himself coming back from a steroid suspension. Hopefully the injury has fully healed and Hazelett can bring his exciting ground game back to a stagnant crop of UFC welterweights.
4. Alexsander Emelianenko - While older brother Fedor has moved increasingly into the American market after the collapse of PRIDE, Alexsander has been stalled by various issues that have kept him fighting on minor shows mainly in Russia. He was expected to compete on the first Affliction show, but was denied a license by the California State Athletic Commission at the eleventh hour, attributed by him to a simple deadline mistake. In the aftermath, a prominent CSAC official stated that Emelianenko would not be allowed to fight anywhere in America, likely owing to something more than time conflicts. Affliction attempted to secure him for their second event, but once again he was denied a permit. Whether or not this is something that can be solved in the future is unknown, but Emelianenko hasn't made any move towards the Japanese promotions that would seem to be the next best place. Instead, he's slated to appear on another M-1 event in Korea this September against lackluster competition.
5. Goran Reljic - I haven't seen many more tantalizing debuts than Reljic's at UFC 84. He was the new and improved "Cro-Cop": a Croatian striker that had vicious kicks but with submission skills. His fight with Wilson Gouveia turned into one hell of an entertaining slugfest, with both fighters seemingly seconds from being finished before Reljic scored the TKO victory and picked up the "Fight of the Night" award. His second fight was scheduled for UFC 90 against Thales Leites, but a back injury in training forced him out. Little has surfaced about Reljic since then. A May report said he had undergone back surgery and had begun minor training, but nothing has come out since then, even though he is still apparently under contract with the UFC.
6. Roger Huerta - "El Matador" was riding a sixteen fight win streak heading into his August 2008 showdown with Kenny Florian. Coming off a resilient win over Clay Guida, this was Huerta's chance to prove he was a top contender. Unfortunately he was dominated by Florian and was expected to move back down into the sludge of the UFC's lightweight division. Instead, he's been inactive for almost exactly a year. Huerta caught Cung Le disease (who should be on this list now that I think about it) and said he wanted to move into acting, which has culminated in a role in the Tekken movie (oh yes). He was also critical of the policies of the UFC during media tours, which drew the predictable backlash from Dana White and led many to believe Huerta had been effectively blacklisted since he only had one fight left on his contract. However, in true Tito Ortiz style (I guess that doesn't really work now since he's returning), Huerta will at least fulfill his contract when he faces the surging Gray Maynard at Fight Night 19.
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