UFC 103 Preview

Later this month UFC 103 will go down in Dallas, featuring the return of a legendary heavyweight trying to resurrect his career and the second catchweight main event in the last five main shows the UFC has held. A few thoughts before the fight breakdowns.

- This is the first time I can remember since following MMA that a promotion is going up against a noteworthy boxing PPV. That is especially significant because Floyd Mayweather Jr., one of the biggest money draws in the sport, is in the main event against Juan Manuel Marquez. The UFC card contains some solid names, but nothing that can compete with Mayweather. So to the surprise of no one, Dana White emerges to blow smoke up the ass of everyone who will listen, claiming that this is not the fight the fans want, citing Pacquiao vs Mayweather as the real fight. I don't follow boxing enough, but that is logically the best possible fight between guys who can hit a common weight. White failed to even remember Marquez's name, despite referencing his background as "a huge boxing guy." Keep in mind Marquez is ranked #2 on Ring's pound-for-pound list, right behind Pacman, who he's given two good showing efforts against despite losing both times. So while Marquez doesn't have mainstream recognition, he is a very legitimate threat to Mayweather and the next best opponent after Pacquiao. White is insinuating that the UFC always gives the fans the big fights they want. Sadly, you have to look no further than Anderson Silva, the UFC's big gun, to find lackluster matchups. Patrick Cote and Thales Leites are both names that would not set the fires alight in the eye of the casual fan if they had them at point blank range with a flamethrower. His most recent fight against Forrest Griffin provided a bigger name, albeit one that was hopelessly overmatched. White later goes on to dismiss Mayweather basically as a defensive fighter who spends his time running and not engaging. Don't let those similar phrases being applied to Anderson Silva up until the Griffin fight distract you from the gospel according to DW. White does come up with one good point by the end, that being how most boxing PPV's can be hollow purchases, offering up only a few decent fights. However, the UFC is always only putting on quality fights, says White. To an extent this is true, but I think it owes more to the unpredictability and multiple outcomes inherent in the sport than some intrinsic quality that comes with the letters UFC. Boxing is a business and so is MMA. White knows this, and if he could tone down his Herculean-hype sometimes he'd probably reduce some of his detractors.

- Rich Franklin fighting again at the 195 catchweight after his win over Wanderlei Silva at UFC 99 comes across as a mixed signal. The UFC has been quick to denounce talk over there being an actual division created at 195, but here it pops up again. Franklin has said if it did exist it would be his new home but whether or not any other fighters feel the same in unknown. The conflicting actions by the UFC probably contribute to this, because until they come up with something concrete, everything is speculation. I'm also not sure if Franklin would be enough to carry the division if it did come to fruition. I personally think less divisions mean higher competition and more meaningful fights within them, but I also am not against additions or catchweight fights. The problem with catchweights is it can undermine the divisional structure in some instances. If Franklin does eventually move up to 205, it would be interesting to see how he fit into the mix in the wake of his results at 195. Would he get a title shot sooner assuming he secured wins or would he have to wait longer? With the UFC eventually adding the bantamweight and featherweight classes, it will be interesting to see where they go with 195.

Now that those diatribes are done, we can move onto the predictions. Nothing on the undercard really stood out to me, so I just did the five main card bouts.

Tyson Griffin vs Hermes Franca - With Kenny Florian coming up short in his bid for the lightweight belt against BJ Penn and Diego Sanchez next in line, the division really has no one that stands out from the large mix of competitors, with the possible exception of Gray Maynard. Griffin and Franca both hope to take the first step towards gaining that vacant status. Griffin had reeled off four straight wins until he ran into Sean Sherk at UFC 90 before bouncing back with a win over Rafeal dos Anjos at Fight Night 18. Franca has been on the shelf since October of 2008, nursing a torn ligament in his knee. I'm expecting Griffin to dominate the fight from every position. Franca is a decent opponent but he has historically had trouble with strong wrestlers like Sean Sherk and Frankie Edgar. I'm predicting Griffin keeps that tradition going.

Prediction - Griffin by Unanimous Decision

Josh Koscheck vs Frank Trigg - Trigg makes his return to the UFC after a four year absence against top welterweight Koscheck, himself trying to get back into the title mix after an equally devastating and surprising knockout loss to Paulo Thiago back in February. Trigg has won four straight, but against very light competition and all by lackluster decision. He's one of several older fighters past their prime but still active the UFC has recently picked up. Like fellow return signee Mark Coleman, the UFC has thrown Trigg to the wolves in his first fight back. Koscheck is superior in every aspect and should rout Trigg early and claim a stoppage victory.

Prediction - Koscheck by TKO

Martin Kampmann vs Paul Daley - Originally slated to be Kampmann vs Mike Swick to determine the next opponent for Georges St. Pierre's welterweight title, Daley was moved up from the preliminaries after Swick was injured. Daley had been scheduled to fight on the Affliction: Trilogy card and signed with the UFC afterwards, adding another popular British fighter to their ranks. Kampmann has won two straight since he dropped to 170 and looks to be on the fast track to a title shot. He needs to be cautious of Daley's striking, which has netted him every stoppage win on his record. Kampmann might look to put Daley onto the ground where he was quickly overwhelmed in his fight with Jake Shields after looking good on the feet. Even with the better standup, I don't see him overwhelming the very well-rounded Kampmann.

Prediction - Kampmann by Submission

Mirko "Cro-Cop" Filipovic vs Junior dos Santos - With all the drama behind Cro-Cop's contract negotiations over, he now looks to resurrect his career and reclaim the magic of the PRIDE days against dangerous fellow striker dos Santos. To put it bluntly, Cro-Cop has not looked good despite winning three of his last four against the dregs of the worldwide heavyweight crop. dos Santos will be a stern test and should show if Cro-Cop's UFC return has any legitimate weight. He's dispatched his last two opponents in just over two minutes and I'm expecting Cro-Cop to sadly suffer a similar, if slightly elongated, fate.

Prediction - dos Santos by TKO

Rich Franklin vs Vitor Belfort - Of all the returning fighters the UFC has plucked, Belfort looks to have the biggest upside. His hand speed has reemerged with his power to potentially allow him to win a fight with one punch. Like Trigg, however, Belfort is matched straight up with a top level fighter in Franklin. I can see Franklin respecting Belfort's stand-up and staying on the outside and scoring with methodical, pinpoint striking of his own on the way to a decision victory. Belfort has room to challenge him though, especially if Franklin slows down like he did in his last fight with Wanderlei Silva. Whatever the result, I hope Belfort stays prominent and can eliminate the consistency issues that have plagued him in the past. His explosiveness could turn him into one of the most dangerous fighters in the UFC.

Prediction - Franklin by Unanimous Decision